Product update

Probability of profit joins OptionsPeek

Finishing beyond the strike is not the same as finishing profitably. OptionsPeek now calculates POP from the contract you are already viewing.

August 10, 2026 · Updated August 14, 2026 · Product updates ·3 min read

What changed

View or select a supported option contract and OptionsPeek uses the current stock price, strike, option price, expiration, and implied volatility already on the page. When those details are available, probability of profit is calculated automatically for a purchased call or put—there is no separate POP form or duplicate contract entry.

The calculation uses the premium-adjusted expiration breakeven rather than the strike alone. Changing the entry option price updates both breakeven and the modeled probability.

Hand-drawn long call probability distribution labeling premium-adjusted breakeven, below-breakeven outcomes, and the profitable region used for probability of profit.
For this long call example, POP is the shaded portion of the modeled expiration distribution beyond the premium-adjusted breakeven.

How to use it

Use probability of profit as one expiration-focused planning input beside premium paid, scenario-date P/L, Greeks, and market quality. It answers a different question from Delta and from probability of finishing in the money.

The percentage is a model estimate, not a forecast or guarantee. OptionsPeek currently shows the long-position result for purchased calls and puts; short-option probability and risk require a different calculation.

probability of profit breakeven long options product updates

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