OptionsPeek · Field notesScenario calculator

The estimate,
then the market.

Real planning snapshots compared with a clearly timed option-market observation after the session opened.

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What this collection records

Planning estimates should be inspectable after the session.

Each case preserves the selected contract, the stock move used for planning, the captured Greeks and IV, the OptionsPeek estimate, and one clearly labeled market comparison point.

Review gate
A case is published only after its contract, timestamps, estimate inputs, comparison point, and outcome have been reviewed.

Cases can use indicative option quotes and estimated Greeks or IV. The source and comparison basis are identified in each case.
Published evidence ledger

Option price estimate vs. outcome

37 reviewed cases
Oct 29, 2026 · PANW

PANW's put midpoint finished 10% below the scenario estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $32.94 indicative midpoint for the Dec. 18 $370 put under a 7% stock-decline scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $29.65 after PANW had fallen 5.11% from the base stock price.

PANW 370P 2026-12-18
Estimated option price change$10.81
Observed option price change (mid)$7.52
10% below the estimated option price
Prior close$394.49
Premarket quote$368.84-6.50%
9:32 a.m. ET$374.33-5.11% from close
Planned move
-7.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
-5.11%
Estimated option price
$32.94
Observed option price
$29.65
Option price before
$22.13
Option price gap
10% below
What the comparison means

The stock declined less than the 7% scenario

The observed indicative put midpoint was 9.98% below the estimate, a rounded difference of $3.29. PANW moved from $394.49 to $374.33, a 5.11% decline, versus the planned $366.88 target under a 7% decline scenario. Implied volatility rose from 59.82% to 59.97%, a 0.15-point change from the hold-constant assumption. The estimate used rounded delta and gamma in its saved calculation input, with IV held constant and no elapsed-time change. The prior-session bid and ask were $20.87 and $23.39; at 9:32 a.m. Eastern they were $26.92 and $32.38. The $5.46 after-open spread exceeded the $3.29 midpoint gap, limiting a precise reading of the comparison. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

PANW fell 5.11% rather than 7%; its put midpoint was below the estimate while IV was nearly unchanged and spreads were wide.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta-0.3348-0.4246-0.0898
Gamma0.00410.0047+0.0006
Vega0.53620.5431+0.0069
Theta-0.2980-0.3054-0.0074
IV59.82%59.97%+0.15 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $394.49 base stock price, -7.00% move, $366.88 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-10-28T19:59:59.556Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-10-29T13:32:49.509Z. The owner approved this case after reviewing the proposed source. Codex checked the baseline, estimate, same-contract outcome, spread, stock and IV path, arithmetic, and references.

Oct 29, 2026 · CRM

CRM's put midpoint finished 5% above the scenario estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $15.73 indicative midpoint for the Dec. 18 $230 put under a 5% stock-decline scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $16.59 after CRM had fallen 5.94% from the base stock price.

CRM 230P 2026-12-18
Estimated option price change$4.75
Observed option price change (mid)$5.61
5% above the estimated option price
Prior close$242.11
Premarket quote$229.42-5.24%
9:32 a.m. ET$227.74-5.94% from close
Planned move
-5.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
-5.94%
Estimated option price
$15.73
Observed option price
$16.59
Option price before
$10.98
Option price gap
5% above
What the comparison means

The stock fell farther than the 5% scenario

The observed indicative put midpoint was 5.49% above the estimate, a rounded difference of $0.86. CRM moved from $242.11 to $227.74, a 5.94% decline, versus the planned $230.00 target under a 5% decline scenario. Implied volatility fell from 48.30% to 47.72%, a 0.58-point change from the hold-constant assumption. The estimate used rounded delta and gamma in its saved calculation input, with IV held constant and no elapsed-time change. The prior-session bid and ask were $10.75 and $11.21; at 9:32 a.m. Eastern they were $15.88 and $17.30. The $1.42 after-open spread exceeded the $0.86 midpoint gap, limiting a precise reading of the comparison. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

CRM fell 5.94% and the put midpoint exceeded the estimate, though the after-open spread was wider than the gap.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta-0.3412-0.4752-0.1340
Gamma0.00840.0099+0.0015
Vega0.33140.3356+0.0042
Theta-0.1467-0.1467-0.0000
IV48.30%47.72%-0.58 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $242.11 base stock price, -5.00% move, $230.00 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-10-28T19:59:59.889Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-10-29T13:32:42.794Z. The owner approved this case after reviewing the proposed source. Codex checked the baseline, estimate, same-contract outcome, spread, stock and IV path, arithmetic, and references.

Oct 28, 2026 · ENPH

ENPH's put midpoint finished 38% below the scenario estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $1.83 indicative midpoint for the Dec. 18 $22.50 put under a 20% stock-decline scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $1.13 after ENPH had fallen 14.84% from the base stock price.

ENPH 22.5P 2026-12-18
Estimated option price change$1.32
Observed option price change (mid)$0.63
38% below the estimated option price
Prior close$29.76
Premarket quote$23.70-20.36%
9:32 a.m. ET$25.35-14.84% from close
Planned move
-20.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
-14.84%
Estimated option price
$1.83
Observed option price
$1.13
Option price before
$0.51
Option price gap
38% below
What the comparison means

The stock did not reach the 20% decline scenario

The observed indicative put midpoint was 38.17% below the estimate, a rounded difference of $0.70. ENPH moved from $29.76 to $25.35, a 14.84% decline, versus the planned $23.81 target under a 20% decline scenario. Implied volatility fell from 71.21% to 65.87%, a 5.34-point change from the hold-constant assumption. The estimate used price-anchored model repricing for the large planned stock move, with IV held constant and no elapsed-time change. The prior-session bid and ask were $0.46 and $0.55; at 9:32 a.m. Eastern they were $0.92 and $1.34. The $0.42 after-open spread was sizable relative to the $1.13 midpoint. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

ENPH fell 14.84% rather than 20%, and IV declined; the put midpoint was below the model-repriced estimate.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta-0.1151-0.2618-0.1467
Gamma0.02430.0520+0.0277
Vega0.02180.0309+0.0091
Theta-0.0145-0.0191-0.0046
IV71.21%65.87%-5.34 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $29.76 base stock price, -20.00% move, $23.81 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-10-27T19:59:59.728Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-10-28T13:32:48.273Z. The owner approved this case after reviewing the proposed source. Codex checked the baseline, estimate, same-contract outcome, spread, stock and IV path, arithmetic, and references.

Oct 28, 2026 · HOOD

HOOD's put midpoint finished 21% below the scenario estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $6.51 indicative midpoint for the Dec. 18 $85 put under a 7% stock-decline scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $5.11 after HOOD had fallen 4.51% from the base stock price.

HOOD 85P 2026-12-18
Estimated option price change$2.16
Observed option price change (mid)$0.76
21% below the estimated option price
Prior close$94.56
Premarket quote$88.20-6.73%
9:32 a.m. ET$90.30-4.51% from close
Planned move
-7.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
-4.51%
Estimated option price
$6.51
Observed option price
$5.11
Option price before
$4.35
Option price gap
21% below
What the comparison means

A smaller stock decline and lower IV accompanied the gap

The observed indicative put midpoint was 21.45% below the estimate, a rounded difference of $1.40. HOOD moved from $94.56 to $90.30, a 4.51% decline, versus the planned $87.94 target under a 7% decline scenario. Implied volatility fell from 63.07% to 58.66%, a 4.41-point change from the hold-constant assumption. The estimate used rounded delta and gamma in its saved calculation input, with IV held constant and no elapsed-time change. The prior-session bid and ask were $4.27 and $4.43; at 9:32 a.m. Eastern they were $4.98 and $5.24. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

HOOD fell 4.51% against a planned 7% decline, and IV also dropped; its put midpoint finished below the estimate.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta-0.2763-0.3418-0.0655
Gamma0.01490.0186+0.0037
Vega0.11920.1238+0.0046
Theta-0.0690-0.0673+0.0017
IV63.07%58.66%-4.41 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $94.56 base stock price, -7.00% move, $87.94 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-10-27T19:59:59.671Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-10-28T13:32:47.332Z. The owner approved this case after reviewing the proposed source. Codex checked the baseline, estimate, same-contract outcome, spread, stock and IV path, arithmetic, and references.

Oct 26, 2026 · MRNA

MRNA's put midpoint finished 1% below the scenario estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $25.63 indicative midpoint for the Dec. 18 $190 put under a 7% stock-decline scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $25.36 after MRNA had fallen 7.62% from the base stock price.

MRNA 190P 2026-12-18
Estimated option price change$5.68
Observed option price change (mid)$5.42
1% below the estimated option price
Prior close$200.10
Premarket quote$185.74-7.18%
9:32 a.m. ET$184.86-7.62% from close
Planned move
-7.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
-7.62%
Estimated option price
$25.63
Observed option price
$25.36
Option price before
$19.95
Option price gap
1% below
What the comparison means

The put midpoint stayed near the estimate

The observed indicative put midpoint was 1.05% below the estimate, a rounded difference of $0.27. MRNA moved from $200.10 to $184.86, a 7.62% decline, versus the planned $186.09 target under a 7% decline scenario. Implied volatility rose from 83.60% to 85.05%, a 1.45-point change from the hold-constant assumption. The estimate used rounded delta and gamma in its saved calculation input, with IV held constant and no elapsed-time change. The prior-session bid and ask were $18.90 and $20.99; at 9:32 a.m. Eastern they were $23.60 and $27.12. The $3.52 after-open spread exceeded the $0.27 midpoint gap, limiting a precise reading of the comparison. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

MRNA fell slightly farther than planned and IV rose, yet the midpoint remained close to the estimate; the spread limits a precise reading.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta-0.3659-0.4509-0.0850
Gamma0.00570.0065+0.0008
Vega0.29440.2815-0.0129
Theta-0.2099-0.2140-0.0041
IV83.60%85.05%+1.45 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $200.10 base stock price, -7.00% move, $186.09 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-10-23T19:59:59.127Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-10-26T13:32:47.461Z. The owner approved this case after reviewing the proposed source. Codex checked the baseline, estimate, same-contract outcome, spread, stock and IV path, arithmetic, and references.

Oct 23, 2026 · MRNA

MRNA's put midpoint finished 8% above the scenario estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $17.96 indicative midpoint for the Dec. 18 $180 put under a 5% stock-decline scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $19.36 after MRNA had fallen 6.36% from the base stock price.

MRNA 180P 2026-12-18
Estimated option price change$3.23
Observed option price change (mid)$4.64
8% above the estimated option price
Prior close$202.63
Premarket quote$192.18-5.16%
9:32 a.m. ET$189.75-6.36% from close
Planned move
-5.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
-6.36%
Estimated option price
$17.96
Observed option price
$19.36
Option price before
$14.73
Option price gap
8% above
What the comparison means

The stock fell farther than planned as IV rose

The observed indicative put midpoint was 7.82% above the estimate, a rounded difference of $1.40. MRNA moved from $202.63 to $189.75, a 6.36% decline, versus the planned $192.50 target under a 5% decline scenario. Implied volatility rose from 83.31% to 84.81%, a 1.50-point change from the hold-constant assumption. The estimate used rounded delta and gamma in its saved calculation input, with IV held constant and no elapsed-time change. The prior-session bid and ask were $13.06 and $16.39; at 9:32 a.m. Eastern they were $18.16 and $20.56. The $2.40 after-open spread exceeded the $1.40 midpoint gap, limiting a precise reading of the comparison. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

A 6.36% MRNA decline and higher IV coincided with a put midpoint above the estimate, but the quote spread exceeded the gap.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta-0.2926-0.3671-0.0745
Gamma0.00520.0060+0.0008
Vega0.27480.2796+0.0048
Theta-0.1931-0.2021-0.0090
IV83.31%84.81%+1.50 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $202.63 base stock price, -5.00% move, $192.50 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-10-22T19:59:59.950Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-10-23T13:32:49.711Z. The owner approved this case after reviewing the proposed source. Codex checked the baseline, estimate, same-contract outcome, spread, stock and IV path, arithmetic, and references.

Oct 22, 2026 · LMT

LMT's call midpoint finished 31% above the scenario estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $28.98 indicative midpoint for the Dec. 18 $575 call under a 5% stock-gain scenario with IV held constant. At 9:35 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $37.95 after LMT had risen 7.89% from the base stock price.

LMT 575C 2026-12-18
Estimated option price change$13.36
Observed option price change (mid)$22.32
31% above the estimated option price
Prior close$551.51
Premarket quote$580.05+5.17%
9:35 a.m. ET$595.00+7.89% from close
Planned move
+5.00%
Observed move at 9:35 a.m. ET
+7.89%
Estimated option price
$28.98
Observed option price
$37.95
Option price before
$15.63
Option price gap
31% above
What the comparison means

The stock rose farther than planned despite lower IV

The observed indicative call midpoint was 30.93% above the estimate, a rounded difference of $8.96. LMT moved from $551.51 to $595.00, a 7.89% gain, versus the planned $579.09 target under a 5% gain scenario. Implied volatility fell from 27.05% to 24.27%, a 2.78-point change from the hold-constant assumption. The estimate used rounded delta and gamma in its saved calculation input, with IV held constant and no elapsed-time change. The prior-session bid and ask were $13.47 and $17.78; at 9:35 a.m. Eastern they were $35.06 and $40.83. The prior and after-open spreads were $4.31 and $5.77, making a precise midpoint comparison difficult. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

LMT rose 7.89% against a 5% scenario, and the call midpoint exceeded the estimate; multi-dollar bid-ask spreads limit precision.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:35 a.m. ET
Delta0.39470.6977+0.3030
Gamma0.00650.0061-0.0004
Vega0.84500.8242-0.0208
Theta-0.2232-0.2166+0.0066
IV27.05%24.27%-2.78 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $551.51 base stock price, +5.00% move, $579.09 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-10-21T19:59:59.520Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-10-22T13:35:17.647Z. The owner approved this case after reviewing the proposed source. Codex checked the baseline, estimate, same-contract outcome, spread, stock and IV path, arithmetic, and references.

Oct 22, 2026 · IONQ

IONQ's put midpoint finished 17% below the scenario estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $3.09 indicative midpoint for the Dec. 18 $30 put under a 5% stock-decline scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $2.57 after IONQ had fallen 1.19% from the base stock price.

IONQ 30P 2026-12-18
Estimated option price change$0.59
Observed option price change (mid)$0.07
17% below the estimated option price
Prior close$32.28
Premarket quote$30.78-4.66%
9:32 a.m. ET$31.90-1.19% from close
Planned move
-5.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
-1.19%
Estimated option price
$3.09
Observed option price
$2.57
Option price before
$2.50
Option price gap
17% below
What the comparison means

A small stock decline left the put below the estimate

The observed indicative put midpoint was 16.94% below the estimate, a rounded difference of $0.52. IONQ moved from $32.28 to $31.90, a 1.19% decline, versus the planned $30.67 target under a 5% decline scenario. Implied volatility fell from 73.56% to 72.48%, a 1.08-point change from the hold-constant assumption. The estimate used rounded delta and gamma in its saved calculation input, with IV held constant and no elapsed-time change. The prior-session bid and ask were $2.41 and $2.59; at 9:32 a.m. Eastern they were $2.47 and $2.67. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

IONQ fell 1.19% against a planned 5% decline, with a slightly lower IV reading; the put midpoint finished below the estimate.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta-0.3370-0.3525-0.0155
Gamma0.03860.0406+0.0020
Vega0.04690.0468-0.0001
Theta-0.0283-0.0283+0.0000
IV73.56%72.48%-1.08 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $32.28 base stock price, -5.00% move, $30.67 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-10-21T19:59:59.696Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-10-22T13:32:49.759Z. The owner approved this case after reviewing the proposed source. Codex checked the baseline, estimate, same-contract outcome, spread, stock and IV path, arithmetic, and references.

Oct 22, 2026 · HOOD

HOOD's put midpoint finished 11% below the scenario estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $5.93 indicative midpoint for the Dec. 18 $90 put under a 5% stock-decline scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $5.26 after HOOD had fallen 3.06% from the base stock price.

HOOD 90P 2026-12-18
Estimated option price change$1.47
Observed option price change (mid)$0.80
11% below the estimated option price
Prior close$101.93
Premarket quote$96.99-4.85%
9:32 a.m. ET$98.82-3.06% from close
Planned move
-5.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
-3.06%
Estimated option price
$5.93
Observed option price
$5.26
Option price before
$4.46
Option price gap
11% below
What the comparison means

The stock declined less than the 5% scenario

The observed indicative put midpoint was 11.43% below the estimate, a rounded difference of $0.68. HOOD moved from $101.93 to $98.82, a 3.06% decline, versus the planned $96.83 target under a 5% decline scenario. Implied volatility fell from 62.43% to 62.13%, a 0.30-point change from the hold-constant assumption. The estimate used rounded delta and gamma in its saved calculation input, with IV held constant and no elapsed-time change. The prior-session bid and ask were $4.39 and $4.53; at 9:32 a.m. Eastern they were $5.18 and $5.33. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

HOOD fell 3.06%, rather than the planned 5%, and its put midpoint finished below the IV-held estimate.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta-0.2567-0.2986-0.0419
Gamma0.01270.0143+0.0016
Vega0.13070.1355+0.0048
Theta-0.0670-0.0701-0.0031
IV62.43%62.13%-0.30 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $101.93 base stock price, -5.00% move, $96.83 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-10-21T19:59:59.603Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-10-22T13:32:49.518Z. The owner approved this case after reviewing the proposed source. Codex checked the baseline, estimate, same-contract outcome, spread, stock and IV path, arithmetic, and references.

Oct 22, 2026 · NOK

NOK's put midpoint finished 3% above the scenario estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $0.48 indicative midpoint for the Dec. 18 $8 put under an 8% stock-decline scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $0.49 after NOK had fallen 9.03% from the base stock price.

NOK 8P 2026-12-18
Estimated option price change$0.20
Observed option price change (mid)$0.22
3% above the estimated option price
Prior close$9.25
Premarket quote$8.53-7.84%
9:32 a.m. ET$8.42-9.03% from close
Planned move
-8.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
-9.03%
Estimated option price
$0.48
Observed option price
$0.49
Option price before
$0.28
Option price gap
3% above
What the comparison means

The larger stock decline left a small midpoint gap

The observed indicative put midpoint was 2.59% above the estimate, a rounded difference of $0.01. NOK moved from $9.25 to $8.42, a 9.03% decline, versus the planned $8.51 target under an 8% decline scenario. Implied volatility fell from 55.55% to 53.91%, a 1.64-point change from the hold-constant assumption. The estimate used price-anchored model repricing for the large planned stock move, with IV held constant and no elapsed-time change. The prior-session bid and ask were $0.26 and $0.29; at 9:32 a.m. Eastern they were $0.47 and $0.51. The $0.04 after-open spread exceeded the $0.01 midpoint gap, limiting a precise reading of the comparison. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

NOK fell farther than planned and its put midpoint landed about a cent above the model-repriced estimate; the quote spread was larger than that gap.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta-0.2121-0.3567-0.1446
Gamma0.14170.2082+0.0665
Vega0.01070.0124+0.0017
Theta-0.0049-0.0055-0.0006
IV55.55%53.91%-1.64 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $9.25 base stock price, -8.00% move, $8.51 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-10-21T19:59:59.918Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-10-22T13:32:48.960Z. The owner approved this case after reviewing the proposed source. Codex checked the baseline, estimate, same-contract outcome, spread, stock and IV path, arithmetic, and references.

Oct 22, 2026 · XE

XE's put midpoint finished 7% below the scenario estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $1.03 indicative midpoint for the Dec. 18 $10 put under a 4% stock-decline scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $0.96 after XE had fallen 1.61% from the base stock price.

XE 10P 2026-12-18
Estimated option price change$0.15
Observed option price change (mid)$0.08
7% below the estimated option price
Prior close$10.89
Premarket quote$10.41-4.45%
9:32 a.m. ET$10.72-1.61% from close
Planned move
-4.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
-1.61%
Estimated option price
$1.03
Observed option price
$0.96
Option price before
$0.88
Option price gap
7% below
What the comparison means

The stock moved less than planned amid a wide spread

The observed indicative put midpoint was 7.46% below the estimate, a rounded difference of $0.08. XE moved from $10.89 to $10.72, a 1.61% decline, versus the planned $10.45 target under a 4% decline scenario. Implied volatility rose from 79.30% to 80.64%, a 1.34-point change from the hold-constant assumption. The estimate used rounded delta and gamma in its saved calculation input, with IV held constant and no elapsed-time change. The prior-session bid and ask were $0.68 and $1.08; at 9:32 a.m. Eastern they were $0.63 and $1.28. The $0.65 after-open spread exceeded the $0.08 midpoint gap, limiting a precise reading of the comparison. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

XE fell 1.61% against a 4% scenario, while its $0.65 after-open spread was much wider than the midpoint gap.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta-0.3262-0.3463-0.0201
Gamma0.10480.1080+0.0032
Vega0.01560.0156-0.0000
Theta-0.0102-0.0105-0.0003
IV79.30%80.64%+1.34 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $10.89 base stock price, -4.00% move, $10.45 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-10-21T19:59:59.588Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-10-22T13:32:46.196Z. The owner approved this case after reviewing the proposed source. Codex checked the baseline, estimate, same-contract outcome, spread, stock and IV path, arithmetic, and references.

Oct 21, 2026 · SPCX

SPCX's call midpoint finished 12% below the scenario estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $6.71 indicative midpoint for the Nov. 20 $170 call under an 8% stock-gain scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $5.94 after SPCX had risen 9.08% from the base stock price.

SPCX 170C 2026-11-20
Estimated option price change$3.72
Observed option price change (mid)$2.94
12% below the estimated option price
Prior close$147.79
Premarket quote$159.96+8.23%
9:32 a.m. ET$161.21+9.08% from close
Planned move
+8.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
+9.08%
Estimated option price
$6.71
Observed option price
$5.94
Option price before
$3.00
Option price gap
12% below
What the comparison means

The stock exceeded its target while IV moved lower

The observed indicative call midpoint was 11.57% below the estimate, a $0.78 rounded difference. SPCX rose from $147.79 to $161.21, beyond the planned $159.61 target, while implied volatility fell from the aligned 56.78% baseline to 50.14%, a 6.64-point change from the hold-constant assumption. The estimate applied price-anchored model repricing for the planned 8% stock move, with no elapsed-time or IV change; it did not predict the later IV reading. The prior-session bid and ask were $2.98 and $3.01, and the 9:32 bid and ask were $5.79 and $6.08. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

SPCX exceeded the planned stock target, but the lower IV reading coincided with an observed midpoint below the IV-held estimate.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta0.22890.3925+0.1636
Gamma0.01240.0166+0.0042
Vega0.13000.1777+0.0477
Theta-0.1238-0.1547-0.0309
IV56.78%50.14%-6.64 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $147.79 base stock price, +8.00% move, $159.61 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-10-20T19:59:59.237Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-10-21T13:32:49.514Z. Owner directed publication on October 22. Rechecked the aligned prior-session baseline, saved model-repricing estimate, same contract and midpoint basis, fresh after-open source, stock path, IV change, quote spreads, and source references.

Oct 21, 2026 · NFLX

NFLX's put midpoint finished 67% below the scenario estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $2.10 indicative midpoint for the Nov. 20 $61 put under a 7% stock-decline scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $0.69 after NFLX had declined 4.56% from the base stock price.

NFLX 61P 2026-11-20
Estimated option price change$1.14
Observed option price change (mid)-$0.28
67% below the estimated option price
Prior close$68.69
Premarket quote$64.08-6.72%
9:32 a.m. ET$65.56-4.56% from close
Planned move
-7.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
-4.56%
Estimated option price
$2.10
Observed option price
$0.69
Option price before
$0.96
Option price gap
67% below
What the comparison means

The stock decline and IV both finished below the planning assumptions

The observed indicative put midpoint was 67.38% below the estimate, a $1.42 rounded difference. NFLX fell from $68.69 to $65.56 rather than reaching the planned $63.88 target, while implied volatility fell from the aligned 48.38% baseline to 32.58%, a 15.80-point change from the hold-constant assumption. Both differences were unfavorable to the put relative to the scenario estimate. The estimate used the rounded delta and gamma in its saved calculation input, with no elapsed-time or IV change. The prior-session bid and ask were $0.92 and $1.00, and the 9:32 bid and ask were $0.66 and $0.71. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

NFLX declined in the planned direction but by less than the scenario, while the lower IV reading widened the gap between the estimate and observation.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta-0.1734-0.1932-0.0198
Gamma0.02650.0447+0.0182
Vega0.05110.0516+0.0005
Theta-0.0386-0.0266+0.0120
IV48.38%32.58%-15.80 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $68.69 base stock price, -7.00% move, $63.88 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-10-20T19:59:59.116Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-10-21T13:32:48.606Z. Owner directed publication on October 22. Rechecked the aligned prior-session baseline, saved rounded-input estimate, same contract and midpoint basis, fresh after-open source, stock path, IV change, quote spreads, and source references.

Oct 21, 2026 · FLY

FLY's call midpoint finished 19% below the scenario estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $1.98 indicative midpoint for the Nov. 20 $17.50 call under a 4% stock-gain scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $1.60 after FLY had risen 3.92% from the base stock price.

FLY 17.5C 2026-11-20
Estimated option price change$0.33
Observed option price change (mid)-$0.05
19% below the estimated option price
Prior close$16.31
Premarket quote$16.97+4.05%
9:32 a.m. ET$16.95+3.92% from close
Planned move
+4.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
+3.92%
Estimated option price
$1.98
Observed option price
$1.60
Option price before
$1.65
Option price gap
19% below
What the comparison means

The stock nearly reached its target while IV fell sharply

The observed indicative call midpoint was 19.22% below the estimate, a $0.38 rounded difference. FLY rose from $16.31 to $16.95, close to the planned $16.96 target, while implied volatility fell from the aligned 111.22% baseline to 92.20%, a 19.02-point change from the hold-constant assumption. The estimate used the rounded delta and gamma in its saved calculation input, with no elapsed-time or IV change. The prior-session bid and ask were $1.37 and $1.93, a $0.56 spread. At 9:32 the bid and ask were $1.38 and $1.82, a $0.44 spread wider than the midpoint gap. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices, so the midpoint comparison cannot isolate the effect of the stock move or IV change precisely.

FLY nearly completed the planned stock gain, but the lower IV reading and wide quote spreads limit what the midpoint gap can establish.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta0.48220.5143+0.0321
Gamma0.07560.0887+0.0131
Vega0.01890.0194+0.0005
Theta-0.0351-0.0306+0.0045
IV111.22%92.20%-19.02 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $16.31 base stock price, +4.00% move, $16.96 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-10-20T19:59:52.630Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-10-21T13:32:47.664Z. Owner directed publication on October 22. Rechecked the aligned prior-session baseline, saved rounded-input estimate, same contract and midpoint basis, fresh after-open source, stock path, IV change, wide quote spreads, and source references.

Oct 19, 2026 · XE

XE's call midpoint finished 14% above the scenario estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $0.75 indicative midpoint for the Nov. 20 $12.50 call under a 10% stock-gain scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $0.85 after XE had risen 4.83% from the base stock price.

XE 12.5C 2026-11-20
Estimated option price change$0.37
Observed option price change (mid)$0.48
14% above the estimated option price
Prior close$10.36
Premarket quote$11.36+9.65%
9:32 a.m. ET$10.86+4.83% from close
Planned move
+10.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
+4.83%
Estimated option price
$0.75
Observed option price
$0.85
Option price before
$0.38
Option price gap
14% above
What the comparison means

The smaller stock gain coincided with a much higher IV reading

The observed indicative call midpoint was 13.52% above the estimate, a $0.10 rounded difference. XE rose from $10.36 to $10.86, short of the planned $11.40 target, while implied volatility increased from the aligned 80.35% baseline to 111.32%, a 30.97-point change from the hold-constant assumption. The estimate applied price-anchored model repricing for the planned 10% stock move, with no elapsed-time or IV change; it did not predict the later IV reading. The prior-session bid and ask were $0.28 and $0.47, a $0.19 spread. At 9:32 the bid and ask were $0.48 and $1.22, a $0.74 spread far wider than the midpoint gap. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices, so the midpoint comparison cannot isolate the effect of the stock move or IV change precisely.

The midpoint exceeded the IV-held estimate even though XE missed the planned stock target; the much higher IV reading and very wide quote spread limit what the ten-cent gap can establish.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta0.26930.3990+0.1297
Gamma0.12840.1080-0.0204
Vega0.01060.0124+0.0018
Theta-0.0125-0.0219-0.0094
IV80.35%111.32%+30.97 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $10.36 base stock price, +10.00% move, $11.40 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-10-16T19:59:56.016Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-10-19T13:32:44.503Z. Owner directed publication of the prepared XE draft on October 20. Rechecked the aligned prior-session baseline, saved model-repricing estimate, same contract and midpoint basis, fresh after-open source, stock path, IV change, wide quote spreads, and source references.

Oct 15, 2026 · FLY

FLY's put midpoint finished 4% below the scenario estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $1.72 indicative midpoint for the Nov. 20 $16 put under a 5% stock-decline scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $1.65 after FLY had fallen 4.05% from the base stock price.

FLY 16P 2026-11-20
Estimated option price change$0.33
Observed option price change (mid)$0.26
4% below the estimated option price
Prior close$17.02
Premarket quote$16.24-4.58%
9:32 a.m. ET$16.33-4.05% from close
Planned move
-5.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
-4.05%
Estimated option price
$1.72
Observed option price
$1.65
Option price before
$1.40
Option price gap
4% below
What the comparison means

The stock fell less than planned while IV was nearly unchanged

The observed indicative put midpoint was 4.28% below the estimate, a $0.07 rounded difference. FLY fell from $17.02 to $16.33, short of the planned $16.17 target, while implied volatility increased from 90.94% to 91.10%, a 0.16-point change from the hold-constant assumption. The smaller stock decline limited the put relative to the estimate, while the slight IV increase provided modest support. The estimate used the rounded delta and gamma in its saved calculation input, with no elapsed-time or IV change. The 9:32 bid and ask were $1.52 and $1.78, a $0.26 spread wider than the midpoint gap. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

The stock did not fully reach the planned decline and IV was nearly unchanged; the seven-cent midpoint gap was smaller than the quote spread.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta-0.3542-0.4107-0.0565
Gamma0.07570.0833+0.0076
Vega0.02010.0199-0.0002
Theta-0.0241-0.0243-0.0002
IV90.94%91.10%+0.16 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $17.02 base stock price, -5.00% move, $16.17 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-10-14T19:59:56.100Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-10-15T13:32:40.920Z. Owner directed publication of the prepared FLY draft on October 20. Rechecked the prior-session baseline, saved rounded-input estimate, same contract and midpoint basis, fresh after-open source, stock path, IV change, quote spread, and source references.

Oct 14, 2026 · IONQ

IONQ's put midpoint finished 4% above the scenario estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $1.65 indicative midpoint for the Nov. 20 $30 put under a 6% stock-decline scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $1.71 after IONQ had fallen 6.51% from the base stock price.

IONQ 30P 2026-11-20
Estimated option price change$0.54
Observed option price change (mid)$0.60
4% above the estimated option price
Prior close$34.73
Premarket quote$32.80-5.57%
9:32 a.m. ET$32.47-6.51% from close
Planned move
-6.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
-6.51%
Estimated option price
$1.65
Observed option price
$1.71
Option price before
$1.11
Option price gap
4% above
What the comparison means

The stock fell farther than planned as IV rose slightly

The observed indicative put midpoint was 3.55% above the estimate, a $0.06 rounded difference. IONQ fell from $34.73 to $32.47, beyond the planned $32.65 target, while implied volatility increased from 70.72% to 71.27%, a 0.55-point change from the hold-constant assumption. Both differences supported the put relative to the estimate. The estimate used the rounded delta and gamma in its saved calculation input, with no elapsed-time or IV change. The 9:32 bid and ask were $1.64 and $1.77, a $0.13 spread wider than the midpoint gap. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

A larger stock decline and slightly higher IV favored the put, while the spread limits how precisely its six-cent midpoint gap can be read.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta-0.2186-0.3154-0.0968
Gamma0.03730.0482+0.0109
Vega0.03300.0368+0.0038
Theta-0.0299-0.0341-0.0042
IV70.72%71.27%+0.55 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $34.73 base stock price, -6.00% move, $32.65 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-10-13T19:59:59.567Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-10-14T13:32:49.220Z. Reviewed the prior-session baseline, rounded calculation inputs, same contract and midpoint basis, after-open source, estimate arithmetic, stock path, IV change, spread, and source references before publication.

Oct 14, 2026 · QBTS

QBTS's put midpoint finished 6% above the scenario estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $0.76 indicative midpoint for the Nov. 20 $12 put under a 4% stock-decline scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $0.81 after QBTS had fallen 4.78% from the base stock price.

QBTS 12P 2026-11-20
Estimated option price change$0.16
Observed option price change (mid)$0.21
6% above the estimated option price
Prior close$13.38
Premarket quote$12.84-4.04%
9:32 a.m. ET$12.74-4.78% from close
Planned move
-4.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
-4.78%
Estimated option price
$0.76
Observed option price
$0.81
Option price before
$0.60
Option price gap
6% above
What the comparison means

A larger decline and higher IV lifted the put

The observed indicative put midpoint was 6.40% above the estimate, a $0.05 rounded difference. QBTS fell from $13.38 to $12.74, beyond the planned $12.84 target, while implied volatility increased from 72.56% to 73.83%, a 1.27-point change from the hold-constant assumption. Both differences supported the put relative to the estimate. The estimate used the rounded delta and gamma in its saved calculation input, with no elapsed-time or IV change. The 9:32 bid and ask were $0.76 and $0.85, a $0.09 spread wider than the midpoint gap. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

The stock overshot the planned decline and IV rose, but the five-cent midpoint gap is smaller than the quote spread.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta-0.2734-0.3492-0.0758
Gamma0.10640.1236+0.0172
Vega0.01430.0150+0.0007
Theta-0.0133-0.0144-0.0011
IV72.56%73.83%+1.27 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $13.38 base stock price, -4.00% move, $12.84 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-10-13T19:59:59.227Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-10-14T13:32:48.132Z. Reviewed the prior-session baseline, rounded calculation inputs, same contract and midpoint basis, after-open source, estimate arithmetic, stock path, IV change, spread, and source references before publication.

Oct 13, 2026 · GS

GS's call midpoint finished 8% below the scenario estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $46.23 indicative midpoint for the Nov. 20 $915 call under a 4% stock-gain scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $42.68 after GS had risen 3.81% from the base stock price.

GS 915C 2026-11-20
Estimated option price change$18.76
Observed option price change (mid)$15.21
8% below the estimated option price
Prior close$893.95
Premarket quote$930.50+4.09%
9:32 a.m. ET$927.99+3.81% from close
Planned move
+4.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
+3.81%
Estimated option price
$46.23
Observed option price
$42.68
Option price before
$27.47
Option price gap
8% below
What the comparison means

A near-target stock gain still left a wide option-price gap

The observed indicative call midpoint was 7.69% below the estimate, a $3.55 rounded difference. GS rose from $893.95 to $927.99, just short of the planned $929.71 target, while implied volatility increased from 29.97% to 31.18%, a 1.21-point change from the hold-constant assumption. The estimate used the rounded delta and gamma in its saved calculation input, with no elapsed-time or IV change. The 9:32 bid and ask were $39.52 and $45.83, a $6.31 spread wider than the midpoint gap. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

The stock nearly reached the scenario target, but the option midpoint lagged; the wide spread and approximation limit a precise explanation of the gap.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta0.44430.5683+0.1240
Gamma0.00450.0042-0.0003
Vega1.15191.1701+0.0182
Theta-0.4928-0.5312-0.0384
IV29.97%31.18%+1.21 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $893.95 base stock price, +4.00% move, $929.71 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-10-12T19:59:59.451Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-10-13T13:32:47.196Z. Reviewed the prior-session baseline, rounded calculation inputs, same contract and midpoint basis, after-open source, estimate arithmetic, stock path, IV change, spread, and source references before publication.

Sep 30, 2026 · MRNA

MRNA's put midpoint finished 4% above the estimate after a larger stock decline

OptionsPeek estimated a $19.16 indicative midpoint for the Nov. 20 $175 put under a 7% stock-decline scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $19.92 after MRNA had fallen 7.89% from the base stock price.

MRNA 175P 2026-11-20
Estimated option price change$4.30
Observed option price change (mid)$5.05
4% above the estimated option price
Prior close$203.46
Premarket quote$188.98-7.12%
9:32 a.m. ET$187.40-7.89% from close
Planned move
-7.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
-7.89%
Estimated option price
$19.16
Observed option price
$19.92
Option price before
$14.87
Option price gap
4% above
What the comparison means

The stock and IV both moved beyond the planning assumptions

The observed indicative option midpoint was 3.93% above the estimate, a $0.75 rounded difference. MRNA fell from $203.46 to $187.40, beyond the planned $189.22 target, while implied volatility increased from 96.36% to 97.83%, a 1.47-point change from the hold-constant assumption. Both differences supported the put relative to the estimate. The estimate used the stored delta and gamma approximation with no elapsed-time or IV change. The 9:32 bid and ask were $18.32 and $21.51, a $3.19 spread containing the $19.16 estimate. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

A somewhat larger stock decline and higher IV both lifted the put, while the wide quote spread limits how precisely the midpoint gap should be read.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta-0.2696-0.3477-0.0781
Gamma0.00450.0054+0.0009
Vega0.25330.2595+0.0062
Theta-0.2279-0.2397-0.0118
IV96.36%97.83%+1.47 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $203.46 base stock price, -7.00% move, $189.22 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-09-29T19:59:59.920Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-09-30T13:32:45.442Z. The prior-session baseline, aligned Greeks and IV, before-open estimate, exact contract, after-open midpoint, estimate arithmetic and method, stock-target difference, spread, and source references were reviewed before publication.

Sep 30, 2026 · HOOD

HOOD's smaller stock gain left its call midpoint 18% below the estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $9.57 indicative midpoint for the Nov. 20 $130 call under a 6% stock-gain scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $7.82 after HOOD had risen 2.00% from the base stock price.

HOOD 130C 2026-11-20
Estimated option price change$2.97
Observed option price change (mid)$1.22
18% below the estimated option price
Prior close$116.22
Premarket quote$122.82+5.67%
9:32 a.m. ET$118.55+2.00% from close
Planned move
+6.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
+2.00%
Estimated option price
$9.57
Observed option price
$7.82
Option price before
$6.60
Option price gap
18% below
What the comparison means

The stock completed one-third of the planned gain

The observed indicative option midpoint was 18.32% below the estimate, a $1.75 rounded difference. HOOD rose from $116.22 to $118.55, below the planned $123.19 target. Implied volatility increased from 65.16% to 67.71%, a 2.55-point change from the hold-constant assumption, but that increase did not replace the missing stock gain. The estimate used the stored delta and gamma approximation with no elapsed-time or IV change. The 9:32 bid and ask were $7.62 and $8.01. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

Higher IV helped the call, but the option stayed below the scenario estimate because the stock gained much less than the assumed 6%.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta0.37920.4140+0.0348
Gamma0.01330.0130-0.0003
Vega0.16670.1726+0.0059
Theta-0.1098-0.1190-0.0092
IV65.16%67.71%+2.55 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $116.22 base stock price, +6.00% move, $123.19 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-09-29T19:59:59.918Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-09-30T13:32:44.858Z. The prior-session baseline, aligned Greeks and IV, before-open estimate, exact contract, after-open midpoint, estimate arithmetic and method, stock-target difference, spread, and source references were reviewed before publication.

Sep 28, 2026 · PATH

PATH's put midpoint finished 3% above the estimate after a larger stock drop

OptionsPeek estimated a $0.58 indicative midpoint for the Nov. 20 $11 put under a 4% stock-decline scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $0.60 after PATH had fallen 5.46% from the base stock price.

PATH 11P 2026-11-20
Estimated option price change$0.13
Observed option price change (mid)$0.15
3% above the estimated option price
Prior close$12.46
Premarket quote$11.91-4.41%
9:32 a.m. ET$11.78-5.46% from close
Planned move
-4.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
-5.46%
Estimated option price
$0.58
Observed option price
$0.60
Option price before
$0.45
Option price gap
3% above
What the comparison means

The stock fell farther than planned while IV moved lower

The observed indicative option midpoint was 2.60% above the estimate, a $0.02 rounded difference. PATH fell from $12.46 to $11.78, beyond the planned $11.96 target, while implied volatility decreased from 57.36% to 56.12%, a 1.24-point change from the hold-constant assumption. The estimate used the stored delta and gamma approximation with no elapsed-time or IV change. The 9:32 bid and ask were $0.53 and $0.67, a $0.14 spread that is much wider than the midpoint gap. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

A larger stock decline supported the put, while lower IV pulled the other way; the quote spread matters more than the two-cent midpoint gap.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta-0.2426-0.3235-0.0809
Gamma0.11180.1425+0.0307
Vega0.01520.0161+0.0009
Theta-0.0074-0.0081-0.0007
IV57.36%56.12%-1.24 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $12.46 base stock price, -4.00% move, $11.96 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-09-25T19:59:58.715Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-09-28T13:32:47.186Z. The prior-session baseline, aligned Greeks and IV, before-open estimate, exact contract, after-open midpoint, estimate arithmetic and method, stock-target difference, wide spreads, and source references were reviewed before publication.

Sep 23, 2026 · QBTS

QBTS's call midpoint lagged a 6% stock-gain scenario

OptionsPeek estimated a $2.22 indicative midpoint for the Nov. 20 $19 call under a 6% stock-gain scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $1.83 after QBTS had risen 1.65% from the base stock price.

QBTS 19C 2026-11-20
Estimated option price change$0.54
Observed option price change (mid)$0.15
18% below the estimated option price
Prior close$17.56
Premarket quote$18.58+5.78%
9:32 a.m. ET$17.85+1.65% from close
Planned move
+6.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
+1.65%
Estimated option price
$2.22
Observed option price
$1.83
Option price before
$1.69
Option price gap
18% below
What the comparison means

The stock gained 1.65%, short of the planned 6%

The observed indicative option midpoint was 17.66% below the estimate, a $0.39 rounded difference. QBTS rose from $17.56 to $17.85, below the planned $18.61 target. Implied volatility increased from 78.43% to 79.32%, a 0.89-point change from the hold-constant assumption. The estimate used the stored delta and gamma approximation with no elapsed-time or IV change. The 9:32 bid and ask were $1.74 and $1.92, an $0.18 spread. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

A positive stock move can still leave a call below its scenario estimate when the actual gain is much smaller than the assumed gain.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta0.47210.4926+0.0205
Gamma0.07200.0707-0.0013
Vega0.02810.0284+0.0003
Theta-0.0196-0.0202-0.0006
IV78.43%79.32%+0.89 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $17.56 base stock price, +6.00% move, $18.61 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-09-22T19:59:59.728Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-09-23T13:32:48.043Z. The prior-session baseline, aligned Greeks and IV, before-open estimate, exact contract, after-open midpoint, estimate arithmetic and method, stock-target difference, spread, and source references were reviewed before publication.

Sep 23, 2026 · IONQ

IONQ's smaller stock gain left its call midpoint below the estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $4.15 indicative midpoint for the Nov. 20 $50 call under an 11% stock-gain scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $3.43 after IONQ had risen 6.60% from the base stock price.

IONQ 50C 2026-11-20
Estimated option price change$1.76
Observed option price change (mid)$1.03
17% below the estimated option price
Prior close$40.74
Premarket quote$45.24+11.03%
9:32 a.m. ET$43.43+6.60% from close
Planned move
+11.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
+6.60%
Estimated option price
$4.15
Observed option price
$3.43
Option price before
$2.40
Option price gap
17% below
What the comparison means

An 11% scenario met a 6.60% observed stock gain

The observed indicative option midpoint was 17.49% below the estimate, a $0.73 rounded difference. IONQ rose from $40.74 to $43.43, below the planned $45.22 target. Implied volatility increased from 80.59% to 81.84%, a 1.25-point change from the hold-constant assumption. OptionsPeek used model repricing for the large planned stock move; the stored Greeks approximation was $4.13, compared with the $4.15 model estimate. The 9:32 bid and ask were $3.37 and $3.48. These indicative quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

An estimate answers the scenario entered. When the stock gains less than planned, compare that assumption mismatch before judging the option-price gap.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta0.32680.4029+0.0761
Gamma0.02740.0273-0.0001
Vega0.05900.0671+0.0081
Theta-0.0419-0.0489-0.0070
IV80.59%81.84%+1.25 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $40.74 base stock price, +11.00% move, $45.22 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-09-22T19:59:59.740Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-09-23T13:32:46.172Z. The prior-session baseline, aligned Greeks and IV, before-open estimate, exact contract, after-open midpoint, estimate arithmetic and method, stock-target difference, spread, and source references were reviewed before publication.

Sep 21, 2026 · HOOD

HOOD's call midpoint finished 0.3% below the estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $10.65 indicative midpoint for the Nov. 20 $135 call under a 5% stock-gain scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the indicative midpoint was $10.62 after HOOD had risen 4.99% from the base stock price and IV was 2.23 points higher.

HOOD 135C 2026-11-20
Estimated option price change$2.58
Observed option price change (mid)$2.55
<1% below the estimated option price
Prior close$119.82
Premarket quote$126.29+5.40%
9:32 a.m. ET$125.80+4.99% from close
Planned move
+5.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
+4.99%
Estimated option price
$10.65
Observed option price
$10.62
Option price before
$8.07
Option price gap
<1% below
What the comparison means

The stock nearly matched the plan, while the quote spread dwarfed the gap

The observed indicative option midpoint was 0.33% below the estimate, a $0.03 rounded difference. HOOD had risen 4.99% from the base stock price by 9:32 a.m. Eastern, almost exactly the planned 5%, while implied volatility was 2.23 points higher. The 9:32 bid and ask were $10.22 and $11.02, an $0.80 spread that contains the $10.65 estimate and is far wider than the 3.5-cent midpoint gap. These indicative option quotes are provider-derived rather than actual OPRA quotes, so the result should not be read as execution-level precision.

A close midpoint match is useful evidence, but even a nearly exact stock move leaves quote spread, IV, and model assumptions to interpret.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta0.39670.4625+0.0658
Gamma0.01160.0113-0.0003
Vega0.19160.2022+0.0106
Theta-0.1074-0.1219-0.0145
IV67.03%69.26%+2.23 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $119.82 base stock price, +5.00% move, $125.81 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-09-18T19:59:59.488Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-09-21T13:32:47.084Z. The prior-session baseline, aligned Greeks and IV, same contract, 9:32 midpoint, estimate arithmetic, observed spread, and source references were checked before publication.

Sep 18, 2026 · NFLX

NFLX put midpoint was 29% above the estimate at 9:32 a.m. ET

OptionsPeek estimated a $2.50 midpoint for the Nov. 20 $67.50 put under a 4% stock-decline scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the indicative midpoint was $3.24 after NFLX had declined 6.36% from the base stock price and IV was 1.49 points higher.

NFLX 67.5P 2026-11-20
Estimated option price change$0.76
Observed option price change (mid)$1.50
29% above the estimated option price
Prior close$75.31
Premarket quote$72.06-4.32%
9:32 a.m. ET$70.52-6.36% from close
Planned move
-4.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
-6.36%
Estimated option price
$2.50
Observed option price
$3.24
Option price before
$1.74
Option price gap
29% above
What the comparison means

The stock fell farther than planned while IV also rose

The observed indicative option midpoint was 29.40% above the estimate, a $0.74 difference. By 9:32 a.m. Eastern, NFLX had fallen 6.36% from the base stock price rather than the planned 4%, favoring the put. Implied volatility was 1.49 points higher than the hold-constant planning input. The 9:32 indicative bid and ask were $3.13 and $3.35. These provider-derived quotes are not actual OPRA quotes or executable prices.

A larger realized stock decline and higher IV can both lift a put above a hold-constant-IV scenario estimate.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta-0.2188-0.3526-0.1338
Gamma0.02310.0302+0.0071
Vega0.09290.1088+0.0159
Theta-0.0273-0.0333-0.0060
IV40.54%42.03%+1.49 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $75.31 base stock price, -4.00% move, $72.30 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint (provider-derived, not an OPRA quote) with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-09-17T19:59:59.510Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-09-18T13:32:48.202Z. The planning and observation snapshots, contract, quote basis, estimate arithmetic, and indicative-feed limitations were reviewed before publication.

Sep 17, 2026 · MRNA

MRNA's call midpoint finished 4% below the estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $20.95 midpoint for the Nov. 20 $155 call under a 5% stock-gain scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $20.21 after MRNA had risen 3.75% from the base stock price and IV was 2.05 points higher.

MRNA 155C 2026-11-20
Estimated option price change$3.91
Observed option price change (mid)$3.17
4% below the estimated option price
Prior close$145.62
Premarket quote$152.95+5.03%
9:32 a.m. ET$151.09+3.75% from close
Planned move
+5.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
+3.75%
Estimated option price
$20.95
Observed option price
$20.21
Option price before
$17.04
Option price gap
4% below
What the comparison means

The stock fell short of its planned gain despite higher IV

The observed option midpoint was 3.54% below the estimate, a $0.74 difference. MRNA had risen 3.75% from the base stock price by 9:32 a.m. Eastern rather than the planned 5%, which restrained the call; implied volatility was 2.05 points higher and supported it. The observed bid and ask were $18.42 and $21.99, a wide opening spread that includes the $20.95 estimate. The midpoint gap should not be interpreted as execution-level precision.

A smaller realized stock gain can outweigh a higher IV reading, while a wide opening spread limits how precisely midpoint prices can be compared.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta0.50820.5499+0.0417
Gamma0.00780.0073-0.0005
Vega0.24480.2503+0.0055
Theta-0.1649-0.1737-0.0088
IV83.33%85.38%+2.05 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $145.62 base stock price, +5.00% move, $152.90 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-09-16T19:59:59.873Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-09-17T13:32:46.959Z. The prior-session baseline, aligned Greeks and IV, 9:32 midpoint, calculations, wide observed spread, and source references were checked before publication.

Sep 17, 2026 · HOOD

HOOD's call finished 5% above the estimated option price

OptionsPeek estimated an $11.87 midpoint for the Nov. 20 $110 call under a 4% stock-gain scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $12.45 after HOOD had risen 4.55% from the base stock price and IV was 2.19 points higher.

HOOD 110C 2026-11-20
Estimated option price change$2.18
Observed option price change (mid)$2.76
5% above the estimated option price
Prior close$104.42
Premarket quote$109.10+4.48%
9:32 a.m. ET$109.18+4.55% from close
Planned move
+4.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
+4.55%
Estimated option price
$11.87
Observed option price
$12.45
Option price before
$9.69
Option price gap
5% above
What the comparison means

A larger stock gain and higher IV both favored the call

The observed option midpoint was 4.90% above the estimate, a $0.58 difference. By 9:32 a.m. Eastern, HOOD had risen 4.55% from the base stock price rather than the planned 4%, and implied volatility was 2.19 points higher. Both differences favored the call. The observed bid and ask were $12.24 and $12.66, so the midpoint comparison is not an executable-price claim.

The stock outpaced the planned move while IV also rose; both assumptions matter when interpreting the option-price gap.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta0.49310.5563+0.0632
Gamma0.01360.0126-0.0010
Vega0.17550.1806+0.0051
Theta-0.0955-0.1021-0.0066
IV66.48%68.67%+2.19 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $104.42 base stock price, +4.00% move, $108.60 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-09-16T19:59:59.920Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-09-17T13:32:46.856Z. The prior-session baseline, aligned Greeks and IV, 9:32 midpoint, calculations, and source references were checked before publication.

Sep 14, 2026 · PANW

PANW's call finished 1% above the estimated option price

OptionsPeek estimated a $17.47 midpoint for the Oct. 16 $350 call under a 4% stock-gain scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $17.60 after PANW had risen 4.12% from the base stock price and IV was 0.96 points higher.

PANW 350C 2026-10-16
Estimated option price change$5.78
Observed option price change (mid)$5.91
1% above the estimated option price
Prior close$330.65
Premarket quote$345.51+4.49%
9:32 a.m. ET$344.26+4.12% from close
Planned move
+4.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
+4.12%
Estimated option price
$17.47
Observed option price
$17.60
Option price before
$11.70
Option price gap
1% above
What the comparison means

The realized stock move closely matched the plan, with IV modestly higher

The observed option price was 0.73% above the estimate, a $0.13 midpoint difference. PANW had risen 4.12% from the base stock price by 9:32 a.m. Eastern, close to and slightly beyond the planned 4%, while implied volatility was 0.96 points higher. Both differences favored the call. The observed bid and ask were $15.89 and $19.31, so the close midpoint comparison should not be read as execution-level precision.

A close midpoint comparison is most useful when the realized stock move also matches the plan, but opening spread and IV still shape the result.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta0.38330.4986+0.1153
Gamma0.00810.0083+0.0002
Vega0.38990.4079+0.0180
Theta-0.2744-0.3168-0.0424
IV46.22%47.18%+0.96 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $330.65 base stock price, +4.00% move, $343.88 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-09-11T19:59:59.571Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-09-14T13:32:48.180Z. Owner reviewed the complete automated capture and approved it for publication.

Sep 14, 2026 · AVGO

AVGO's put finished 2% below the estimated option price

OptionsPeek estimated a $7.57 midpoint for the Oct. 16 $330 put under a 4% stock-decline scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $7.40 after AVGO had declined 3.70% from the base stock price and IV was 1.48 points higher.

AVGO 330P 2026-10-16
Estimated option price change$3.30
Observed option price change (mid)$3.14
2% below the estimated option price
Prior close$361.99
Premarket quote$345.89-4.45%
9:32 a.m. ET$348.58-3.70% from close
Planned move
-4.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
-3.70%
Estimated option price
$7.57
Observed option price
$7.40
Option price before
$4.27
Option price gap
2% below
What the comparison means

A slightly smaller stock decline and higher IV pulled in opposite directions

The observed option price was 2.19% below the estimate, a $0.17 midpoint difference. AVGO had declined 3.70% from the base stock price by 9:32 a.m. Eastern rather than the planned 4%, which restrained the put, while implied volatility was 1.48 points higher and supported it. The observed bid and ask were $7.15 and $7.65, so the estimate remained within the quoted spread and the midpoint comparison should not be read as execution-level precision.

When the realized decline nearly matches the plan, a modest IV increase can offset part of the missing stock move; quote spread still bounds the comparison.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta-0.1816-0.2841-0.1025
Gamma0.00640.0086+0.0022
Vega0.29460.3499+0.0553
Theta-0.1471-0.1976-0.0505
IV36.70%38.18%+1.48 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $361.99 base stock price, -4.00% move, $347.51 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-09-11T19:59:59.826Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-09-14T13:32:47.442Z. Owner reviewed the complete automated capture and approved it for publication.

Sep 9, 2026 · META

META's first fully automated capture finished 6% below the estimated option price

OptionsPeek estimated a $19.76 midpoint for the Oct. 9 $670 call under a 5% stock-gain scenario with IV held constant. At 9:32 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $18.52 after META had risen 4.18% from the base stock price and IV was 1.69 points higher.

META 670C 2026-10-09
Estimated option price change$9.79
Observed option price change (mid)$8.55
6% below the estimated option price
Prior close$613.48
Premarket quote$645.89+5.28%
9:32 a.m. ET$639.13+4.18% from close
Planned move
+5.00%
Observed move at 9:32 a.m. ET
+4.18%
Estimated option price
$19.76
Observed option price
$18.52
Option price before
$9.97
Option price gap
6% below
What the comparison means

The first fully automated capture kept the planning and outcome snapshots seven minutes apart

This was the first case captured end to end by the automated workflow: Qrythm identified the 5.28% premarket move at 9:25 a.m. Eastern, OptionsPeek froze the contract and estimate seconds later, and after-open actuals were recorded at 9:32. The observed option price was 6.32% below the estimate, a $1.25 midpoint difference. META had risen 4.18% from the base stock price rather than the planned 5%, which reduced the call value relative to the estimate; a 1.69-point IV increase supported the call and narrowed part of that gap. The 9:32 bid and ask were $16.69 and $20.34, so the midpoint should be read with that opening-spread context.

A shorter capture window reduces path drift, but the realized stock move and opening spread still matter when judging the option-price estimate.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:32 a.m. ET
Delta0.25030.3763+0.1260
Gamma0.00450.0050+0.0005
Vega0.56660.6954+0.1288
Theta-0.3832-0.5018-0.1186
IV39.65%41.34%+1.69 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $613.48 base stock price, +5.00% move, $644.15 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-09-08T19:59:59.861Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-09-09T13:32:46.583Z. First fully automated capture; planning, aligned Greeks and IV, after-open evidence, and comparison reviewed and approved for publication.

Sep 8, 2026 · IONQ

IONQ's call exceeded the estimate as the stock gain and IV both rose

OptionsPeek estimated a $3.08 midpoint for the Oct. 16 $45 call under a 6% stock-gain scenario with IV held constant. At 9:35 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $4.32 after IONQ had risen 11.03% from the base stock price and IV was 8.14 points higher.

IONQ 45C 2026-10-16
Estimated option price change$0.95
Observed option price change (mid)$2.20
40% above the estimated option price
Prior close$39.52
Premarket quote$42.04+6.36%
9:35 a.m. ET$43.88+11.03% from close
Planned move
+6.00%
Observed move at 9:35 a.m. ET
+11.03%
Estimated option price
$3.08
Observed option price
$4.32
Option price before
$2.13
Option price gap
40% above
What the comparison means

The realized stock gain was nearly twice the planned move, while IV also increased

The observed option price was 40.38% above the estimate, a $1.24 midpoint difference. IONQ had risen 11.03% from the base stock price by 9:35 a.m. Eastern rather than the planned 6%, and implied volatility was 8.14 points above the hold-constant planning input. Delta increased from 0.3574 to 0.5252 as the call moved closer to the money; that higher observed sensitivity is context for the changed contract state, not a separate planning input.

When an upside move exceeds the plan, changing moneyness and higher IV can both lift a call beyond a hold-constant-IV estimate.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:35 a.m. ET
Delta0.35740.5252+0.1678
Gamma0.03730.0338-0.0035
Vega0.04990.0565+0.0066
Theta-0.0463-0.0637-0.0174
IV74.84%82.98%+8.14 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $39.52 base stock price, +6.00% move, $41.89 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-09-04T19:59:59.524Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-09-08T13:35:20.537Z. Planning, aligned Greeks and IV, and after-open evidence reviewed and approved for publication preparation.

Sep 8, 2026 · QBTS

QBTS's call exceeded the estimate after the stock gain doubled

OptionsPeek estimated a $1.47 midpoint for the Oct. 16 $18 call under a 5% stock-gain scenario with IV held constant. At 9:35 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $1.97 after QBTS had risen 10.28% from the base stock price and IV was 4.99 points higher.

QBTS 18C 2026-10-16
Estimated option price change$0.38
Observed option price change (mid)$0.89
34% above the estimated option price
Prior close$16.58
Premarket quote$17.49+5.46%
9:35 a.m. ET$18.29+10.28% from close
Planned move
+5.00%
Observed move at 9:35 a.m. ET
+10.28%
Estimated option price
$1.47
Observed option price
$1.97
Option price before
$1.09
Option price gap
34% above
What the comparison means

A larger stock gain and higher IV both favored the call

The observed option price was 34.14% above the estimate, a $0.50 midpoint difference. QBTS had risen 10.28% from the base stock price by 9:35 a.m. Eastern rather than the planned 5%, while implied volatility was 4.99 points above the hold-constant planning input. Delta increased from 0.4224 to 0.5810 as the call moved through the strike; that higher observed sensitivity describes the after-open contract state rather than an additional estimate adjustment.

The hold-constant-IV estimate is a baseline: a larger realized stock move and an IV increase can make the observed call price materially higher.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:35 a.m. ET
Delta0.42240.5810+0.1586
Gamma0.09720.0863-0.0109
Vega0.02200.0231+0.0011
Theta-0.0197-0.0242-0.0045
IV71.71%76.70%+4.99 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $16.58 base stock price, +5.00% move, $17.41 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-09-04T19:59:59.903Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-09-08T13:35:20.204Z. Planning, aligned Greeks and IV, and after-open evidence reviewed and approved for publication preparation.

Sep 4, 2026 · PATH

PATH's put midpoint finished 2% below the estimated option price

OptionsPeek estimated a $2.03 midpoint for the Oct. 16 $17 put under a 10% stock-decline scenario with IV held constant. At 9:35 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $1.99 after PATH had declined 13.80% from the base stock price while IV had fallen 18.73 points.

PATH 17P 2026-10-16
Estimated option price change$0.76
Observed option price change (mid)$0.73
2% below the estimated option price
Prior close$18.22
Premarket quote$16.36-10.21%
9:35 a.m. ET$15.71-13.80% from close
Planned move
-10.00%
Observed move at 9:35 a.m. ET
-13.80%
Estimated option price
$2.03
Observed option price
$1.99
Option price before
$1.27
Option price gap
2% below
What the comparison means

A larger stock drop and lower IV pulled in opposite directions

The observed option price was 1.90% below the model-repriced estimate, a $0.04 midpoint difference. PATH had declined 13.80% from the base stock price by 9:35 a.m. Eastern—farther than the planned 10%—which favored the put, while implied volatility had fallen 18.73 points, which restrained its price. The planning bid and ask were $1.08 and $1.45, and the indicative 9:35 bid and ask were $1.77 and $2.21, so the close midpoint match should not be read as execution-level precision.

A close midpoint match can result from offsetting forces; the stock move, IV change, pricing method, and both quoted spreads still matter.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:35 a.m. ET
Delta-0.3394-0.6098-0.2704
Gamma0.07600.1232+0.0472
Vega0.02290.0204-0.0025
Theta-0.0198-0.0130+0.0068
IV77.17%58.44%-18.73 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $18.22 base stock price, -10.00% move, $16.40 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-09-03T19:59:59.965Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-09-04T13:35:20.456Z. Planning, model-repriced estimate, and 9:35 a.m. evidence reviewed and approved for publication preparation.

Sep 4, 2026 · MRNA

MRNA reversed its premarket gain before the 9:35 snapshot

OptionsPeek estimated a $14.15 midpoint for the Oct. 16 $160 call under a 4% stock-gain scenario with IV held constant. By 9:35 a.m. Eastern, MRNA was down 1.07% from the base stock price and the call midpoint was $11.14, nearly unchanged from its $11.30 planning price.

MRNA 160C 2026-10-16
Estimated option price change$2.86
Observed option price change (mid)-$0.16
21% below the estimated option price
Prior close$148.87
Premarket quote$155.55+4.49%
9:35 a.m. ET$147.27-1.07% from close
Planned move
+4.00%
Observed move at 9:35 a.m. ET
-1.07%
Estimated option price
$14.15
Observed option price
$11.14
Option price before
$11.30
Option price gap
21% below
What the comparison means

The stock path reversed the scenario direction

The observed option price was 21.28% below the estimate, a $3.01 midpoint difference, because MRNA had moved from a 4.49% premarket gain to a 1.07% decline from the base stock price by 9:35 a.m. Eastern. A 3.68-point increase in implied volatility helped cushion the call, but it could not replace the missing stock gain. The indicative 9:35 bid and ask were $9.82 and $12.46, so the $11.14 midpoint should be read with that wide-spread context.

A premarket move defines the planning scenario; the stock path and option spread at the observation time determine what the comparison actually shows.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:35 a.m. ET
Delta0.44930.4384-0.0109
Gamma0.01020.0099-0.0003
Vega0.20180.1970-0.0048
Theta-0.1865-0.1920-0.0055
IV75.84%79.52%+3.68 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $148.87 base stock price, +4.00% move, $154.82 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-09-03T19:59:59.294Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-09-04T13:35:20.367Z. Planning, Greeks, IV, and 9:35 a.m. evidence reviewed and approved for publication preparation.

Sep 4, 2026 · HOOD

HOOD's put rose, but a smaller stock drop and lower IV left it below the estimate

OptionsPeek estimated a $7.89 midpoint for the Oct. 16 $115 put under a 4% stock-decline scenario with IV held constant. At 9:35 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $7.11 after HOOD had declined 3.39% from the base stock price and IV was 2.95 points lower.

HOOD 115P 2026-10-16
Estimated option price change$1.70
Observed option price change (mid)$0.92
10% below the estimated option price
Prior close$124.72
Premarket quote$119.55-4.15%
9:35 a.m. ET$120.50-3.39% from close
Planned move
-4.00%
Observed move at 9:35 a.m. ET
-3.39%
Estimated option price
$7.89
Observed option price
$7.11
Option price before
$6.19
Option price gap
10% below
What the comparison means

The stock decline and IV both finished below the planning assumptions

The observed option price was 9.92% below the estimate, a $0.78 midpoint difference. HOOD had declined 3.39% from the base stock price by 9:35 a.m. Eastern rather than the planned 4%, while implied volatility was 2.95 points below the hold-constant planning input. Both differences reduced the put premium relative to the estimate.

When the stock moves in the planned direction but not as far, a simultaneous IV decline can widen the option-price gap.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:35 a.m. ET
Delta-0.3085-0.3638-0.0553
Gamma0.01270.0148+0.0021
Vega0.15040.1535+0.0031
Theta-0.1089-0.1078+0.0011
IV64.80%61.85%-2.95 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $124.72 base stock price, -4.00% move, $119.73 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint with OptionsPeek-aligned estimated Greeks and IV, timestamped 2026-09-03T19:59:59.301Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-09-04T13:35:19.938Z. Planning and 9:35 a.m. evidence reviewed and approved for publication preparation.

Aug 21, 2026 · HOOD

HOOD's call midpoint reached the estimate through a different path

OptionsPeek estimated a $7.92 midpoint for the Oct. 16 $105 call under a 5% stock-move scenario with IV held constant. At 9:35 a.m. Eastern, the midpoint was $8.24 even though HOOD had moved only 0.36% from the base stock price, while IV had risen 17.58 points.

HOOD 105C 2026-10-16
Estimated option price change$2.49
Observed option price change (mid)$2.81
4% above the estimated option price
Prior close$95.10
Premarket quote$100.03+5.18%
9:35 a.m. ET$100.44+5.62% from close
Planned move
+5.00%
Observed move at 9:35 a.m. ET
+0.36%
Estimated option price
$7.92
Observed option price
$8.24
Option price before
$5.43
Option price gap
4% above
What the comparison means

A close price result did not mean the assumptions matched

The observed option price was 4.00% above the estimate, a $0.32 midpoint difference. But HOOD did not complete the planned 5% move from the base stock price by 9:35 a.m. Eastern. The 17.58-point increase in implied volatility helped lift the option premium despite the smaller stock move.

Estimate accuracy should be judged with the stock path, implied volatility, timing, and quote basis—not the ending option price alone.
Before-open inputsAfter-open snapshot · 9:35 a.m. ET
Delta0.44360.4851+0.0415
Gamma0.02180.0159-0.0059
Vega0.15490.1565+0.0016
Theta-0.0679-0.0933-0.0254
IV46.29%63.87%+17.58 pts
Review the captured assumptions

Scenario: $100.08 base stock price, +5.00% move, $105.08 target, with IV set to hold constant.

Planning data: Prior-session indicative option midpoint and Greeks, timestamped 2026-08-20T19:59:59.678Z.

Comparison: mid at 2026-08-21T13:35:19.987Z. Planning and 9:35 a.m. evidence reviewed and approved as a high-quality observation.

A repeatable case-study method

One workflow, captured the same way every time.

OptionsPeek remains the estimator. Candidate monitoring belongs upstream in Qrythm.

Find the moveQrythm flags an after-hours or premarket candidate.
Choose the contractRecord the exact option selected for the hypothetical observation.
Freeze inputsTimestamp price, Greeks, IV, and the planned stock move.
Observe the sessionCapture the exact contract's labeled after-open option price and updated Greeks.
Review and publishExplain the gap, verify sources, then approve the case.